The Golden Gate Bridge looking north toward Sausalito, Belvedere, Tiburon and Angel Island

The AI Boom Is Pushing San Francisco Homes $1M Over Asking. Here’s Why Buyers Are Looking at Marin.

ByMelissa DiVita

By Melissa DiVita, REALTOR®, Compass · DRE #01387955 · Marin native, in Bay Area real estate since 2003 · September 2026

Key takeaways

  • San Francisco is in a bidding frenzy. 144 homes in the city sold for $1 million or more over asking in the first half of 2026, up from just 8 a year earlier (Compass).
  • AI wealth is part of the story. Employee tender offers at OpenAI, the expected IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic, and SpaceX’s IPO in June have created a wave of new liquidity.
  • Marin is the release valve. Marin’s median sale price (about $1.51M) is now slightly below San Francisco’s (about $1.59M), and homes here sell closer to list price: about 101% versus 114% in the city (Redfin, Aug 2026).
  • You get more for the money, and time to think. Marin homes average about 36 days on market versus 20 in San Francisco.
  • Plan the equity side early. How you turn stock into a down payment matters as much as the house.

What’s happening in San Francisco

I started my real estate career in San Francisco in 2003, at Hill & Co., and I’ve watched a few Bay Area booms since then. This one is different in one striking way: the size of the overbids.

According to a Compass report covered by The Real Deal, 144 San Francisco homes sold for at least $1 million over asking in the first six months of 2026, including 44 in June alone. In the same period of 2025, that happened eight times. The homes in that group listed for an average of $3.8 million and sold for an average of $5.3 million. A Cow Hollow home listed just under $8 million sold for $15 million.

Across the whole city, Redfin shows San Francisco’s median sale price at about $1.59 million for the three months through August 2026, up 13.7% from a year earlier. Homes are selling in about 20 days, at 114% of list price on average, with two-thirds going over asking and about four offers per home.

Where the money is coming from

Much of the conversation centers on artificial intelligence.

  • OpenAI reportedly completed a $7 billion employee tender offer in August 2026 at an $852 billion valuation, letting employees sell shares before any IPO (TechCrunch).
  • OpenAI and Anthropic are both widely expected to go public. Redfin estimated that current and former employees of the two companies could, in theory, buy nearly a third (29%) of all homes in San Francisco with their after-tax IPO wealth.
  • SpaceX went public in June and minted thousands of new millionaires, according to CNBC. Most SpaceX employees work in Southern California and Texas, but it’s part of the same broader wave of tech liquidity.
  • Employees are already tapping that wealth through tender offers, secondary sales and stock-backed loans. Some sellers have even been offered pre-IPO stock as payment (Axios).

To be fair, not everyone thinks IPOs are the main driver. Compass chief economist Mike Simonsen told The Real Deal that recent history shows tech IPOs have had a minimal effect on San Francisco home prices, and that record stock markets lifting the wealth of tens of thousands of employees at companies like Meta, Google, Apple and Nvidia matter more. Either way, the result for buyers is the same: a lot of money chasing very few homes in the city.

Why that’s turning buyers toward Marin

When the city gets this competitive, people start asking what else they could have for the same money. For many of them, the answer is just across the Golden Gate.

3 months through Aug 2026San FranciscoMarin County
Median sale price$1.59M (+13.7%)$1.51M (+8.6%)
Average sale-to-list114%101%
Sold above list67.6%40.7%
Median days on market2036
Homes sold1,574 (+15.9%)227 (+34.9%)

Source: Redfin. Figures are for the city of San Francisco and all of Marin County.

Here’s what those numbers mean in practice. In San Francisco, a $2 million list price often means $2.3 million or more, and you may have a weekend to decide. In Marin, most homes still sell close to their asking price, and you usually have time for inspections and a second visit. Marin sales volume is also up about 35% from a year ago, so more buyers are clearly paying attention.

What you get for your money in Marin

  • Space. Yards, views and room for a home office are far more attainable than in most city neighborhoods at the same price.
  • Top-rated public schools where your address decides your school: Redwood, Tam and Archie Williams ranked #1 to #3 among Marin public high schools on Niche for 2026.
  • A real commute option. The Tiburon ferry reaches the Ferry Building in about 30 minutes, Sausalito in about 30 and Larkspur in about 35.
  • The lifestyle. Mt. Tam, the Bay, beaches and small-town downtowns, plus Napa and Sonoma under an hour from central Marin.

Marin isn’t cheap, and the best homes here are competitive too. Belvedere, Ross and parts of Tiburon and Mill Valley still see multiple offers. But overall, a buyer with city-level purchasing power has far more choice here, and more room to negotiate.

My advice if you’re an AI-wealth buyer

  • Map your liquidity first. Know what’s vested, what’s locked up, when tender windows open and what the tax bill looks like. Bring your financial advisor and CPA in early.
  • Talk to a lender who understands equity compensation. RSUs, tender proceeds and stock-backed loans all underwrite differently. Many Marin homes also need jumbo financing, since Marin’s 2026 conforming limit is $1,249,125.
  • Pick your commute before your town. If you’ll be at an office near the Ferry Building, Tiburon, Sausalito and Larkspur deserve a close look.
  • Check insurance before you offer. Wildfire and flood zones affect insurability and cost in parts of Marin. Here’s my guide.
  • Move early. If the IPO wave arrives the way many expect, today’s calmer Marin market may not last.

Financing in Marin. My husband Michael DiVita is a mortgage broker and owner of DiVita Home Finance, with access to 40+ wholesale lenders, including jumbo and non-traditional income programs. Learn more at mycahomeloan.com.
Disclosure: Michael DiVita is my husband. You are free to choose any lender; using DiVita Home Finance is never required, and I receive no referral fee. Nothing in this post is financial, tax or legal advice.

Frequently asked questions

Are San Francisco homes really selling for $1 million over asking?

Yes. According to a Compass report covered by The Real Deal, 144 San Francisco homes sold for at least $1 million over asking in the first half of 2026, compared with 8 in the same period of 2025. Those homes listed for an average of $3.8 million and sold for an average of $5.3 million.

Is Marin County cheaper than San Francisco right now?

On median sale price, slightly. Redfin reported a Marin County median of about $1.51 million and a San Francisco median of about $1.59 million for the three months through August 2026. More importantly, Marin homes sold at about 101% of list price on average, compared with about 114% in San Francisco.

Can I use pre-IPO stock or RSUs to buy a home in Marin?

Buyers are using tender-offer proceeds, vested RSUs and, in some cases, loans secured by stock. The right structure depends on your equity, lockups and taxes, so talk with a financial advisor, a CPA and a lender who works with equity-compensated buyers before you shop.

How long is the commute from Marin to San Francisco?

The Tiburon ferry reaches the San Francisco Ferry Building in about 30 minutes, Sausalito in about 30 and Larkspur in about 35. Driving from southern Marin to downtown can be quick outside rush hour.

Thinking about trading the city for Marin?

I’m a fourth-generation Marin native, and I’ve helped buyers make this move for years. Send me a note through my contact form, and I’ll put together a short list of towns that fit your commute, schools and budget.

Contact Melissa
Moving from SF guide
Compare Marin towns

Sources

Similar Posts